11.19.2005

A gab bag

This is going to be a mish-mash of ideas that I have been thinking about that I just want to get out there. I don't have time to develop every one of them so... here they are:

The 100 dollar laptop
This will create, by force, the next internet and cause the death of Microsoft as we know it. Why? It has no harddrive. They just stuck in a couple gigs of flash memory and a few "Essential" programs like a word processor and an internet browser. Assuming a 10th of the users have access to the internet with this thing there are going to be 1 million people out there dying for internet delivered applications. And, as with most things, if you build it they will come. Other companies will start building 300 dollar laptops with nice screens but that are still basically glorified internet browsers and now computers are finally availiable to the masses. Yes the first users will be poor but there is still money to be made in this. I can tell you this much, I'm going to buy the first laptop like this that is sold because frankly the only programs I ever have open are word, firefox, and AIM.

Republicans and democrats
About a year ago I gave up caring about the fact that President Bush had won the nomination. My reasoning is somewhat Maciavellian but I thought if I am right then what the Bush administration and republicans are doing is not sustainable. There will be a crash and, hopefully, that crash will be so great as to destroy the republican party. At the time I was gunning for complete dominance of the democrats but now I want everyone to go down with this thing. I want politics as we know it to be destroyed because frankly if the public wants to they can find enough dirt on the vast majority of republicans and probably half the democrats to sweep them out of office. This wont happen though untill the media gets more agressive, which we are starting to see.

The Revolution
Ah yes, don't worry, its still comming! Only I am more worried now about the possibility of a real war (not iraq, I'm talking 10s to 100s of thousands of causualties) within our life time. The way I see it the world is segmenting into three regions, the western hemisphere, the middle east, and China. War will only only start due to unstable countries and world wars only occure due to the clash of hegemons. Here we have both. China is gunning to control asia like the USA controls the Western Hemisphere and to a degree Europe. It already has several conflicts that it appears willing to go to war over: Tiwan, Nepal, and the big one Energy (They had quite an argument with japan over oilfields in the sea of japan a couple years ago). So you have ambitios nations (China), unstable nations (mid east), and nations that are willing to go to war to maintain their position of dominance (US and Europe). I hope this won't happen and it probably wont but with the comming energy squeeze...

Finland
It has the most competitive economy in the world and yet it is socialist? They pay over 40% of their income in taxes each year and speeding ticket fines are based on your income. An executive of nokia (I think) payed a houndred thousand dollar speeding ticket a few years ago. The point is that many people make the argument in the USA that low taxes are good for an economy because when you take away peoples earnings they have less incentive to work hard and be innovative and this doesn't seem to be the case in Finland. What Finland has going for it is a very egalitarian society. It is one of the most racially homogenious nations in the world and the harsh enviroment and its small size tend to encourage cooperation as opposed to competition. Also, they use that money to invest heavily in human capital such as education, government funded research, and social services. *sigh* Is it possible for a country to be to big for its own good? Is it hard to learn whatever language they speak there?

I Misanthrope
My faith in humanity is waning. Well, I guess that is not entirely accurate, my hope for humanity is waning. I have come to the conclusion that alot of the worlds problems stem from the social and behavioral changes we have had to adopt to maintain the increadible number of people on the planet right now. This is why, if I make billions of dollars (heh) I am not going to donate it to education or fighting world hunger (loosing battle, you feed people they make more people that need food. Populations will expand to utilize all of the resources availiable and overshooting is inevitable.) I am going to donate it towards world wide birth control. If I become president (not if this blog is still up) I will encourage programs that advocate one child per couple. The fact is we have already reached the world capacity. Yes, technically we can have more people but not without decreasing the overall happyness significantly. I would also write an open letter to the Catholic Church that says basically: "Hey guys, you can stop discouraging birth control and condums and all that. We made it. We hath gone forth and populated the earth and now it is time to think about what to do now. We are not animals, our population doesn't have to be dictated by the same differential equations (yes, I would say that), we can take steps to make ourself happier."

Fourie Approximations
Using an infinite sum of sines and cosines you can approximate any two dimensional curve. Lately all I have wanted to do is find the fourie approximations of stuff around me. Mainly trees. Awesome.

4 Comments:

Blogger Josh Staiger said...

Re: The 100 dollar laptop

It'll happen eventually.
It just makes sense. But we've been predicting the oncomming dominance of thin client NCs "any day now" for the past ten years.

Is it for real this time? Maybe.

Personally, I like Greenspun's phone as pc idea. He gave a good talk about this here.

Re: Republicans and democrats

Don't ever read any of the spending bills that congress passes. It'll make you want to quit school and set things on fire.

I'm amazed every day that our society somehow manages to go on with idiots like these pulling the strings.

Perhaps what we need is a system better than democracy. When I'm appointed supreme dictator of the world the current members of congress will be the first up against the wall. I'm keeping a list.

Re: finland

Christopher Alexander argued in his 1977 classic A Pattern Language (which, by the way, seriously rocks) for countries of no more than a few million people:

"It is not hard to see why the government of a region becomes less and less manageable with size. In a population of N persons, there are of the order of N^2 person-to-person links needed to keep channels of communication open. Naturally, when N goes beyond a certain limit, the channels of communication needed for democracy and justice and information are simply too clogged, and too complex; bureaucracy overwhelms human process. ...

"We believe the limits are reached when the population of a region reaches some 2 to 10 million. Beyond this size, people become remote from the large-scale processes of government. Our estimate may seem extraordinary in the light of modern history: the nation-states have grown mightily and their governments hold power over tens of millions, sometimes hundreds of millions, of people. But these huge powers cannot claim to have a natural size. They cannot claim to have struck the balance between the needs of towns and communities, and the needs of the world community as a whole. Indeed, their tendency has been to override local needs and repress local culture, and at the same time aggrandize themselves to the point where they are out of reach, their power barely conceivable to the average citizen."


The United States is 100 times larger than Alexander thought prudent and indeed most people feel like inhabitants rather than citizens participating in decision-making.

Finland — Population: 5,223,442

The problem is, they won't let you move there because if they did that then everyone would and it would ruin things :)

Re: I Misanthrope

The cause of the population explosion in many countries is paradoxically high infant mortality. Couples feel they need to have craploads of kids in order to ensure that at least one survives.

Low infant mortality is pretty hard to acheive outside the developed world. So we need to get countries developed in order to solve the infant mortality problem.

Right now China and India aren't pulling themselves out of poverty because of foreign aid from the developed world. They're doing it because of an abundance of cheap labor, and relatively stable political systems that facilitate economic development.

The reword for making it to "developed" status is low infant mortality and a decreasing birthrate, and therefore negative population growth. Just look at Europe right now. (Immigration is the major reason why the US population is still increasing)

Tracing the bouncing ball backwards, the first long term step towards solving the overpopulation problem is to solve the political instability problem in places like Africa.

How to do that? I have no idea. With Iraq we certainly proved that we're not very good at it (or, at least, the idiots and crooks that we tend to elect with our democray aren't very good at it).

I think all we can really do is just hope that things work themselves out eventually. They seem to be doing so in India and China for the moment...

11:24 AM  
Blogger Craig Snoeyink said...

You have a good point about political stability and population growth. I'm not sure it is neccesarily political stability that leads to negative population growth but perhaps an abundance of resources. This is what I think you mean by a developed country. After this point is achieved then ya, you will see negative population growth.

The problem is I don't see many of the countries outside of europe and north america achieving this status any time soon. Energy is a prerequisit of growth and there is simply not enough energy to sustain the growth of wealth necessary to raise the rest of the world up to european and american standards. It would be interesting though to see exactly what level of wealth is necessary to cause negative growth.

I had an engineering professor once that said that the only thing that creats wealth is manufactoring. One can argue intelectual property is also important but things that directly impact ones percieved threat to life are physical and take energy to produce and maintain (Food, shelter, water, government...).

In leu of naturally decreasing fertility I suggest artifically doing so (one could argue that the decrease in population in developed countries is also due to the ubiquity of birth control). I can see no disadvantage to giving fertility control to people. Since I don't anticipate mankind refraining from sex we might as well give people the option of weather it produces a baby or not.

2:15 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I for one think we should just stop having sex. Good thing no one listens to me :)

8:37 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

100-Dollar Laptop: UN Secretary General’s Office shouldn’t be used for exploiting the poor

My eyes were stuck to the news that the UN Secretary General Mr. Kofi Annan, while launching a 100-Dollar Laptop, on the World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) in Tunis, Tunisia, said “the invention is an impressive technical achievement. The project promises to provide flexible technology that can be used in any place, even in the desert without energy supply”. It is also reported that the U.N. is backing the project even with financial support thinking that it could help to promote education in the Third World. A professor and his team mates of MIT (USA) have claimed the credit for the project and the invention (!).
At the very outset, let me state certain hard facts, which I believe will largely explain the title of today’s write-up. Long 31 years ago, in 1975, I invented the Free-play Radio technology and demonstrated a working model in a jam-packed press conference on 23 July 1975 in Dhaka. The news came out in almost all the news papers in the country in addition to an editorial the following day. Raymond Lee Organization, Inc.(USA) wanted to take initiatives for patenting the invention and marketing the product (Receipt No.71001, dated 13 February 76 ) when I contacted them from the then West Germany. On the request of Bangladesh Science Museum, a working model was presented to them in 1978. The invention, although apparently a simple (addition of storage facility to a hand generator) one, was never conceived and publicly demonstrated by anyone on this earth before 23 July1975. It opened the gate for free playing and playing low-powered electrical gadgets and equipments in remote and yet vast electricity-less areas of the world.. Thus the technology is especially handy for mass communication, mass literacy, emergency weather forecasting or as a life-saving communications tool following a natural disaster ( be it in the coastal areas of the Bay of Bengal or New Orleans city), mass-scale low-powered emergency medical equipments etc. However, to reduce the price of a product with free-play facility and bring its price closer to the product without that facility, mass-scale production was a necessity, for which the desire to do so by the wealthy and powerful people who rule and control the world economy was also essential. But it appears that the world leaders were not keen to give the green signal unless and until the very free-play technology could be hijacked, first by the British and then by the Americans.
In 1989, I sent a brief on my inventions and research works (including the free-play radio) to ITDG (UK) in the hope of mutual cooperation. In reply, they informed me that they would be establishing an office in Dhaka soon and re-contact me after that. But they never contacted me again, although they opened their office in Dhaka alright. One fine morning, on 28 August 1996 to be precise, through a British High Commission press release in a local daily, a company named Bay-Gen proclaimed itself to be the inventor (!) of the Free-play radio, which was reported to be developed under British technical and financial assistance under the ODA program. Immediately after the British press release, a wave of protests flooded the news papers and periodicals in terms of editorials, post-editorials, features, letters etc. in the country. Bangladesh Patent Office gave me recognition as the inventor of the Free-play radio and congratulated me for the invention and wished all success. The Bangladesh Govt. and I contacted the British High Commission, Bay-Gen company and the British Patent Office, but no to-the-point replies were received. Understandably so, since the UK Patent Office awarded a patent to a British named Trevor Bayliss in the 90’s on a technology which was in display in the Bangladesh Science Museum since 1978 and which was publicly demonstrated even before, i.e. in 1975, which is not only unethical but also highly illegal. The illegal invention of Bay-Gen received BBC product design award 1996 also. When the matter was raised to the BBC, they replied “development of the Bay-Gen is not a BBC matter”. A question was asked on the conscience of the BBC “Had it been the other way round i.e. a British invention in 1975, could you still have given a BBC product design award to a Bangladeshi company in 1996 and a reply to the British inventor “…..not a BBC matter” ? But no reply was received. According to a report titled “Launch set to go like clockwork” published in a foreign news paper, Bay-Gen received a multi-million pound cash boost from the GEC(USA) and planned to produce devices like free-play radio (originally planned for use in African bush fighting aids, with the blessing of the President Nelson Mandela, would go on sale throughout the world for about 50 pounds), mobile-phone charger, torch light, even TV sets etc. in its plan to launch a billion-pound business. During the recent war with Iraq the BBC talked about (and showed the product) using 5000 free-play radios by the allied forces. The 100-dollar laptop authorities must have acquired the hand-cranking free-play technology’s manufacturing right from the illegal patent holder as already mentioned above. A hand-cranking mobile-charger is recently being flooded in the local market @ USD 2, and appears to be a Chinese/Taiwanese product although no manufacturer’s name is printed, without caring for any patent rights. The President of a Japanese company appears to be right. He came to Dhaka towards the end of December’04 to discuss with me the modalities of acquiring the manufacturing rights of my new invention of free-electricity (2002) and commented on my new invention “the Americans will not care for your patent on such technologies, some Japanese companies may care but not every company will and the Chinese wouldn’t take more than seven days to reach your home with a manufactured product if they get a prototype”. He further added “some people told me that you did not elaborate in certain places in your patent paper”. I replied “75% answer of your question have just been replied by you yourself. Besides, there is hardly any time left to complete the patent formalities for the invention. I am not sitting idle, I am trying to develop a better process, and also to make a prototype with that”. At that time, I also discussed with him about my hand-cranking mobile-charger technology which he appreciated and now I can see the manufactured product in the market.
My new invention of Free-electricity has already been registered with World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) with a filing No. PCT/IB03/03366 dated 04 August 2003. The 44-page story with diagrams and a very favorable search report from the American Patent Office (USPTO) acting as the International Searching Authority (ISA), has also been published by the WIPO in the form of a booklet and is also in the display of WIPO website since 04 March 2004, under publication No. WO 2004/019476 dated 04 March 2004 (revised on 22 April 2004 for correction and again on 22 July 2004 to accommodate the ISA report). Actually, the ISA report dated 21 April 2004 from the USPTO was delayed by about 5 months. When the legal section of WIPO was contacted, they replied “there may be special circumstances where time is needed to resolve matters arising in connection with important workload in certain technical areas etc. As to your particular case, I would suggest that you contact the USPTO directly. You may also inquire about any refunds in such a case.” Accordingly, I contacted the USPTO, but I did not get a proper reply.

On 04 July 2004, the patent paper of my new invention was sent to many notable eastern/western universities of the world for their evaluation and comments. Although the “Innovation” magazine of Singapore National University opined it to be a “too high level research work”, the aforesaid MIT (USA) refused to give any comment on it. People started saying that the MIT was busy in building a mobile laptop using Bangladeshi technology and therefore it refused to talk at that time. Energy Technology Innovation Project of Harvard University (another university of USA) replied “we (the project of Harvard) do not do any original research either of science or of technology”. Most of the Universities of the Western world replied “this is not our project, we do not want to be involved”. My answer to all the universities was “I certainly honor your decision if it is honest and non-racial. But the way my free-play technology was hijacked, how can I be sure”? I did not get any further reply. A journal of the Physics faculty of a notable university of Canada was almost ready to publish the paper. But they asked me for my postal address on the plea of “addressing me properly”. As soon as they found out that I am from the Third World, they did not correspond with me any more. A New York born President of the Conserve Energy Engg. Inc. wrote to me while reading my paper “I am impressed with the parts that I have read. The dangers in bringing forth a low cost or free energy source, dangers that you must be aware of by now, the "powers to be" or most certainly in the USA, Corporate America and also the worldwide Oil Mafia, will do just about anything to protect their interests”. Not a single university however could point out any fault in my paper and I strongly believe that my pressure-motion equivalence theory is correct and there is no scientific basis behind Newton’s third law of motion.

Although I received a local patent on my new invention of Free-electricity (and a very favorable search report from the International Searching Authority), I could not manage patents in other countries for want of sky-high financial requirements. Since I am a member of the International Federation of Inventors’ Association (IFIA), Switzerland, and the Institute of Electrical & Electronics Engineers (IEEE),USA, and an invited scientist of many inventors’ associations like East West Euro Intellect, World Association of Inventors, SIMED etc., I had

requested the inventors’ associations to try to make an arrangement to evaluate a WIPO published patent paper with a favorable search report , after the leading universities of the world had expressed reluctance to do so. An inventor cannot plead his case himself in the national phase of an international patent application. An attorney or at
least an address of correspondence in that particular country is required, which is highly expensive and really impossible for an inventor of a Third World country. As it is, the basic fees for pursuing a patent is exorbitantly high too.
Coming back to the comments of the UN Secretary General on the 100-Dollar Laptop, it is worth mentioning that there was again a wave of protests in the leading local dailies against the hijacking of the Bangladeshi technology of Free-play Radio by the100-Dollar project authorities. On the question of 100-Dollar Laptop’s technical achievement as opined by the UN Secretary General, I became tired and was unable to find any such thing. The Linux operating system, the flash memory instead of hard disks/CD-Rom drives, the LCD displays (the dual-mode display as claimed by the project was not operational in the WSIS prototype. The prototypes were shown with conventional transmission TFT LCD displays)etc. are pretty old technologies. Cheap components have been used in the 100-Dollar Laptop. But one who knows about the definition of “invention”, should understand that merely using cheap things to reduce the price does not constitute an invention. Use of "parasitic power" of typing, although not a totally new idea, could however be considered an achievement if it could be economically and reliably utilized. But I am afraid, this seems not to be the case so far. Using of low-cost, low-power and high-resolution eInk displays will be a good idea, but the project’s undisclosed technology appears to be not a novel one either and understandtably the project has no plans to patent their display innovations(!). As far I understand, the project authorities are not confident enough to bring such display innovations(!) in the market before the hardy Chinese (without any UN backing or multimillion pound cash boost from GEC,USA).
At the UN conference in Tunisia, several African officials, most notably Marthe Dansokho of Cameroon and Mohammed Diop of Mali were suspicious of the motives of the project, and claimed that the project was using an overly American mindset that presented solutions not applicable to specifically African problems. Dansokho said the project demonstrated misplaced priorities. Diop specifically attacked the project as an attempt to exploit a new market under the guise of "non-profitability". He further added “It is a very clever marketing tool. Under the guise of non-profitability hundreds of millions of these laptops will be flogged off to our governments. That's the only way of achieving the necessary economies of scale to get the price low. They've finally found a way of selling to a huge number of poor people. Even at a hundred dollars, as the well dressed Africans were pointing out last night, these things are absolutely not a bargain for an African child. Schooling for a year would make more sense. Better food would be nice. If it ever does make sense for Africa's children all to have laptops, this will surely not be until the price of them goes down to something nearer to ten dollars than a hundred. My guess is they will all have mobiles long before. And we don't need to give this one away. If somebody puts in the research to design the thing and really, really optimizes for cost, I'm sure there's a Chinese factory somewhere you can build it for”. Mr. Bill Gates in his criticism said "The world's poorest two billion people desperately need healthcare, not laptops".
Unfortunately, my “free-play” technology has been hijacked and incorporated in the 100-Dollar Laptop to reach a vast population of electricity-less poor people (without incorporating free-play technology this wouldn’t have been possible). Even a profit margin of barely USD 25 in the cleverly designed marketing plan of “one laptop per chid(OLPC)”suggests a profit of only(!) USD 50 billion, from the world’s poorest two billion people.What a Nobel-prize winning maketing plan indeed!
The western world preaches for open-market economy, but this OLPC maketing plan (with a minimum market lot of 1-million) will be executed through the corrupt governments( the beneficiaries of so-called western assistance programs through World Bank,IMF etc. while the common people have to shoulder all the loans with cleverly designed effective heavy interests), so-called donors, absolutely loyal to their masters the NGOs, and other similar arrangements under the umbrella of UN. One Mr. Lee opined "The U.N. is backing the project
because it can help promote education in the Third World". But the question is, what is the per capita income of the vast targetted people? I am afraid, the figure may not be very much away from USD100, if the income of the western so-called assistance nourished so-called elite groups are not taken into account.Therefore, after being forced to buy a 100-Dollar Laptop, he wouln’t have anything to eat ,anything to live on or anything to wear (attire
is a must for the poor, although optional for the western people).However, the OLPC project will be first launched in countries like Nigeria, Egypt, India, China, Brazil , Argentina and Thailand. Between five million and 15 million units are expected to be provided to these countries.
Actually, even the computers failed to calculate the wealth gathered by the powerful and leading arms- producing countries of the world each year. They invest the surplus wealth in a highly profitable business of so-called assistance programs(in terms of interest, supporting even the misdeeds of the so-called donors, listening to harmful dictations, serving as an assured market and accepting all kinds of garbage tools and so-called experts etc.) by channeling the money through the world Bank, IMF , loyal NGOs and similar tools. They create and spread conflict and corruption and demoralize the people in other countries in order to sell their arms and to arrest their progress with an ultimate view of keeping a vast assured market and less powerful nations to rule.
In the WSIS, Mr. Kofi Annan also said “This is not just a matter of giving laptop to each child, as if bestowing on them some magical charm. The magic lies within-within each child, within each scientist, scholar or just plain citizen in the making. This initiative is meant to bring it forth into the light of day”, but the question is why should anyone be a scientist in the third world country? To give scope to the western world for hijacking their inventions or to helplessly tolerate USPTO delaying the search report by 5 months (on grounds of special circumstances where time is needed to resolve matters arising in connection with important workload in certain technical areas etc.) without giving compensations or to become a puppet to the whims of the rich people where “intellectual property” has been very cleverly and effectively been shaped as “rich people’s property” or to get no answers either from the governments or from patent offices on the question of alleged hijacking of inventions or to discover racism in leading western universities when they were reluctant/failed to evaluate a science paper or simply to be a victim of the West /oil Mafia in trying to do good to mankind?
If the UN sincerely believes in the welfare of the third world, why shouldn’t it try at least a few following things :
1. Close all the arms manufacturing plants in the world.
2. Make “intellectual property” as an “intellectual property” in reality and not “rich people’s property” effectively : (a) Make arrangements so that an individual scientist of the Third World can get a patent for the whole world with a maximum expenditure of USD 100. He should be allowed to plead his case himself and perform all the necessary formalities from his own residence through correspondence with his own equivalent currency. (b) Fully assist in fighting the “hijacking of inventions” cases, including my one in the International Court of Justice. (c) Make arrangements to evaluate a WIPO published patent paper with a favorable search report.
3. Monitor the ill-motivated so-called assistance programs through IMF, World Bank, loyal to their masters the NGOs and similar tools of the West.
4. Do not be a party to the huge profit-making programs of the West by exploiting the poor in disguise of humanity, child care, education and God knows what not.
5. Do not allow the West to escape competition from hardy nations under the umbrella of the UN by marketing any product forcibly (invisible) in huge numbers through corrupt governments, so-called donors, loyal NGOs and similar agencies. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….......
Written by: Nazmul Huda , 38/10 Siddheswari Road, Dhaka-1217, Bangladesh. E-mail : nazinvbd@yahoo.com
Copy forwarded for favor of Publication by : Nazmul Huda

10:51 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home